You’ve been on ‘That’ trip, right? You check the weather, you figure the time of year, you juggle the odds… “Oh, I guess I don’t need to pack a rain jacket.” That ups your chances for rain, by, say, fifty percent.
Forget your tent? It will storm.
If you are smart, though, and bring a rain suit, a three season tent, tarps, rope, umbrellas and a marquee, it probably won’t rain. If you also bring a case of those little throwaway ponchos for everyone on your camping trip who DIDN’T pack rain gear? Area drought. Be careful- you don’t want the local river to dry up in case there’s kayaking that weekend.
Like the scouts, be prepared. Bring stuff so you won’t need it.